Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
