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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near remote Japanese territory as Beijing escalates tensions following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.