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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

Yet the latest field is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers ascending together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still